化疗对原发性肝脏弥漫大B细胞淋巴瘤预后的影响:基于SEER数据库与机器学习的分析
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作者单位:

1.四川省绵阳市中医医院 普通外科,四川 绵阳 621000;2.四川省绵阳市中心医院 普通外科,四川 绵阳 621000

作者简介:

黄坤,四川省绵阳市中医医院副主任医师,主要从事普通外科基础与临床方面的研究。

基金项目:

四川省绵阳市卫计委2023科研基金资助项目(202309);四川省绵阳市中医药开发利用重点实验室2025开放基金资助项目(25ZYKF04);成都中医药大学2024校院联合创新基金资助项目(LH202402010)。


Prognostic impact of chemotherapy in primary hepatic diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: a SEER-based machine learning analysis
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1.Department of General Surgery, Mianyang Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Mianyang, Sichuan 621000, China;2.Department of General Surgery, Mianyang Central Hospital, Mianyang, Sichuan 621000, China

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    摘要:

    背景与目的 原发性肝脏弥漫大B细胞淋巴瘤(DLBCL)罕见且预后差,化疗价值尚无大样本证据支持。本研究利用SEER数据库的大样本真实世界数据,评估化疗对原发性肝脏DLBCL患者预后的影响。方法 提取SEER数据库中2000—2019年经病理确诊的原发性肝脏DLBCL病例的临床资料,按是否接受化疗分组。采用Kaplan-Meier法、Cox比例风险模型及随机生存森林模型分析总生存期(OS)和肿瘤特异生存期(CSS)的影响因素,并进行亚组分析。结果 共纳入594例患者,中位年龄66岁,化疗组435例(73.2%)。中位随访17.5个月,化疗组和非化疗组的中位OS分别为:81(7~173)个月和11(2~171)个月。化疗组OS率和CSS率均明显优于非化疗组(67.99% vs. 47.77%;71.03% vs. 52.87%,均P<0.05)。多因素分析显示,化疗是OS(HR=0.39,95% CI=0.31~0.48)和CSS(HR=0.37,95% CI=0.29~0.48)的独立保护因素。随机生存森林模型中,化疗的重要性评分最高。亚组分析结果一致。结论 化疗是原发性肝脏DLBCL患者预后的独立影响因素,可显著改善OS,R-CHOP方案可能是优选治疗方案。

    Abstract:

    Background and Aims Primary hepatic diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is rare and carries a poor prognosis, with no large-scale evidence supporting the value of chemotherapy. This study used real-world, large-sample data from the SEER database to evaluate the prognostic impact of chemotherapy in patients with primary hepatic DLBCL.Methods Clinical data of patients pathologically diagnosed with primary hepatic DLBCL between 2000 and 2019 were extracted from the SEER database and grouped according to whether they received chemotherapy. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards models, and random survival forest models were employed to identify factors influencing overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), and subgroup analyses were performed.Results A total of 594 patients were included, with a median age of 66 years; 435 (73.2%) received chemotherapy. After a median follow-up of 17.5 months, the median OS was 81 (7-173) months in the chemotherapy group versus 11 (2-171) months in the non-chemotherapy group. The OS and CSS rates in the chemotherapy group were significantly higher than those in the non-chemotherapy group (67.99% vs. 47.77%; 71.03% vs. 52.87%, both P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that chemotherapy was an independent protective factor for OS (HR=0.39, 95% CI=0.31-0.48) and CSS (HR=0.37, 95% CI=0.29-0.48). In the random survival forest model, chemotherapy ranked highest in variable importance. Subgroup analyses produced consistent results.Conclusion Chemotherapy is an independent prognostic factor for patients with primary hepatic DLBCL and can significantly improve survival. The R-CHOP regimen may be the preferred therapeutic option.

    图1 原发性肝脏DLBCL患者的生存曲线 A:OS;B:CSSFig.1 Survival curves of patients with primary hepatic DLBCL A: OS; B: CSS
    图2 原发性肝脏DLBCL患者临床参数Cox回归森林图 A:OS;B:CSSFig.2 Forest plots of Cox regression analysis for clinical parameters in patients with primary hepatic DLBCL A: OS; B: CSS
    图3 随机森林模型中的变量重要性 A:OS;B:CSSFig.3 Variable importance in the random forest model A: OS; B: CSS
    图4 化疗对不同亚组患者预后影响的森林图 A:OS;B:CSSFig.4 Forest plots of the impact of chemotherapy on prognosis in different patient subgroups A: OS; B: CSS
    表 1 原发性肝脏DBCL患者的基线特征表[n(%)]Table 1 Baseline characteristics of patients with primary hepatic DLBCL [n (%)]
    表 2 原发性肝脏DLBCL患者OS与CSS影响因素的单因素Cox分析Table 2 Univariate Cox regression analysis for CSS and OS in patients with primary hepatic DLBCL
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黄坤,王雯,杨婷,何运胜,冯俊.化疗对原发性肝脏弥漫大B细胞淋巴瘤预后的影响:基于SEER数据库与机器学习的分析[J].中国普通外科杂志,2025,34(7):1401-1409.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.230402

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-03
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-02