大肝癌肝切除术后肝功能衰竭的危险因素分析和术前预测模型构建
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1.安徽医科大学第一附属医院 普通外科,安徽 合肥 230022;2.安徽医科大学第二附属医院 普通外科,安徽 合肥 230601

作者简介:

张昭文,安徽医科大学第一附属医院硕士研究生,主要从事肝胆胰腺疾病方面的研究。

基金项目:

安徽省科技创新攻坚计划重点基金资助项目(202423k09020009);安徽省卫生健康委科研重点基金资助项目(AHWJ2023A10028)。


Construction of a preoperative prediction model for post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients with large hepatocellular carcinoma
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1.Department of General Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230022, China;2.Department of General Surgery, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230601, China

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    摘要:

    背景与目的 肝细胞癌(HCC)是最普遍的肝脏恶性肿瘤类型,占所有原发性肝癌病例的80%。肝部分切除术被广泛认为是HCC的首选治疗方案。然而,肝切除术后相关并发症中,肝切除后肝功能衰竭(PHLF)是最为严重的一种,成为围手术期死亡的主要诱因。因此,准确评估PHLF的发生风险显得尤为关键。大肝癌(肿瘤直径≥5 cm)患者瘤体较大,切除的肝组织较多,更易发生PHLF。以往的研究已有多种评估PHLF风险的方法,包括肝功能Child-Pugh分级、终末期肝病模型、白蛋白-胆红素(ALBI)分级以及天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶与血小板比率指数评分等。但是,目前还没有模型是针对大肝癌肝切除术的数据开发的。因此,本研究旨在分析大肝癌患者发生PHLF的危险因素,并构建术前列线图预测模型,指导和优化临床决策。方法 回顾性收集2018年1月—2023年6月在安徽医科大学第一附属医院(721例,训练队列)及安徽医科大学第二附属医院(206例,验证队列)接受根治性肝切除的927例大肝癌患者的临床资料。通过患者的基线资料、实验室检查、影像学资料及手术信息,使用单因素分析结合多因素分析筛选出诱发PHLF的独立危险因素,通过二元Logistic回归构建PHLF的预测模型。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线和临床决策曲线验证模型的性能。结果 训练队列与验证队列相比,所有术前数据均无明显差异(均P>0.05)。927例患者中,共有192例发生了B级或C级的PHLF,发生率为20.7%,其中发生C级PHLF患者8例。通过单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析,确定肿瘤直径、ALBI分级、肝硬化、脉管癌栓、术中出血量五个独立危险因素,将这些因素纳入Logistic回归分析并构建预测PHLF的列线图模型。对列线图模型进行验证,列线图C指数为0.757,对模型的预测概率行ROC曲线分析,训练集曲线下面积(AUC)=0.757(95% CI=0.703~0.811),验证集AUC=0.779(95% CI=0.702~0.863),验证显示该模型具有良好的预测能力。结论 肿瘤直径、ALBI分级、肝硬化、脉管癌栓、术中出血量是PHLF发生的独立危险因素。通过本研究构建的列线图预测模型,能够准确评估术前PHLF风险有助于临床上更好地管理患者,减少PHLF的发生,提升患者的术后预后。

    Abstract:

    Background and Aims Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most prevalent type of liver malignancy, accounting for 80% of all primary liver cancer cases. Partial hepatectomy is widely considered to be the treatment of choice for HCC. However, post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is the most serious complication and the leading cause of perioperative death. Therefore, an accurate assessment of the risk of PHLF is particularly critical. Patients with large hepatocellular carcinoma have larger tumors (tumor diameter ≥5 cm) and more resected liver tissue, and are more likely to develop PHLF. Previous studies have used various methods to assess the risk of PHLF, including liver function, Child-Pugh classification, model for end-stage liver disease, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index score. However, no model has been developed for data on hepatectomy for large HCC. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the risk factors of PHLF in HCC patients with large tumor and to construct a preoperative nomogram prediction model to guide and optimize clinical decision-making.Methods The clinical data of 927 patients with large liver cancer who underwent radical hepatectomy in the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University (721 cases, training cohort) and the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University (206 cases, validation cohort) from January 2018 to June 2023 were retrospectively collected. The patients' baseline data, laboratory examination, imaging data, and surgical information were collected. Univariate analysis combined with multivariate analysis was used to screen out the independent risk factors for inducing PHLF, and binary Logistic regression was used to construct a prediction model for PHLF. ROC, calibration, and clinical decision curves verified the model's performance.Results There were no significant differences in all preoperative data between the training and validation cohorts (P>0.05). Grade B or C PHLF occurred in 192 of 927 patients (20.7%), including 8 patients with grade C PHLF. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the independent risk factors of PHLF, including tumor diameter, ALBI score, liver cirrhosis, vascular tumor thrombus, and intraoperative blood loss. These factors were included in the Logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram model was constructed to predict PHLF. The nomogram model was validated, and the C-index of the nomogram was 0.757. The ROC curve analysis of the prediction probability of the model showed that the AUC of the training set was 0.757 (95% CI=0.703-0.811), and the AUC of the validation set was 0.779 (95% CI=0.702-0.863). The validation showed that the model had good predictive ability.Conclusions Tumor diameter, ALBI score, liver cirrhosis, vascular tumor thrombus, and intraoperative blood loss are independent risk factors for PHLF. The nomogram prediction model constructed in this study can accurately assess the risk of preoperative PHLF, which is helpful for better clinical management, reducing the occurrence of PHLF, and improving the postoperative prognosis of patients.

    图1 PHLF预测模型列线图Fig.1 Nomogram of the predictive model for PHLF
    图2 PHLF风险预测模型的ROC曲线 A:训练队列;B:验证队列Fig.2 The ROC curve of the PHLF risk prediction model A: Training cohort; B: Validation cohort
    图3 PHLF列线图模型的校准曲线 A:训练队列;B:验证队列Fig.3 The calibration curve of the PHLF nomogram model A: Training cohort; B: Validation cohort
    图4 列线图预测PHLF的DCA曲线(All:对所有患者进行治疗;None:不对任何患者进行治疗) A:训练队列;B:验证队列Fig.4 Decision curve analysis of nomogram to predict the occurrence of PHLF (All: Treatment for all patients; None: No treatment for any patient) A: Training cohort; B: Validation cohort
    图5 本模型与三个传统模型的受试者工作特征曲线Fig.5 Receiver operating characteristic curves of this model versus three traditional models
    表 1 训练队列和验证队列患者资料比较[n(%)]Table 1 Comparison of the general data of training and validation cohorts [n (%)]
    表 2 训练队列和验证队列患者资料比较[n(%)](续)Table 2 Comparison of the general data of training and validation cohorts [n (%)] (continued)
    表 3 PHLF的危险因素的单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析Table 3 Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses of the risk factors for PHLF
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张昭文,胡新源,陈子祥,陈江明,耿小平,刘付宝.大肝癌肝切除术后肝功能衰竭的危险因素分析和术前预测模型构建[J].中国普通外科杂志,2025,34(7):1390-1400.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.250124

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-06
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-02