基于GBD数据的中国高体质量指数相关主动脉瘤疾病负担变化趋势分析
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中国医科大学附属盛京医院 肿瘤中心,辽宁 沈阳 110001

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张元元,中国医科大学附属盛京医院健康管理师,主要从事普通外科疾病管理方面的研究。

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Trends in disease burden of aortic aneurysm attributable to high body mass index in China based on GBD data
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Department of Oncology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, China

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    摘要:

    背景与目的 主动脉瘤作为一种高致死率和高致残率的重大心血管疾病,已成为全球公共卫生的重要挑战。体质量指数(BMI)升高被证实是其独立危险因素之一,但高BMI所致主动脉瘤疾病负担在中国的长期趋势及其性别、年龄和区域异质性尚缺乏系统研究。本研究基于全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库,探讨1990—2021年中国高BMI相关主动脉瘤的疾病负担变化趋势,并与全球及不同社会人口指数(SDI)水平地区进行比较分析。方法 利用GBD 2021数据,提取1990—2021年间中国高BMI导致的主动脉瘤病死率和失能调整生命年(DALY)等指标,计算其年龄标准化病死率(ASMR)和年龄标准化失能调整生命年率(ASDR)。采用扩展年均变化百分比(EAPC)和Joinpoint回归模型评估长期趋势,并基于自回归积分滑动平均模型预测2022—2036年疾病负担的未来趋势。结果 研究期内,中国高BMI相关主动脉瘤死亡数和DALY分别增长近7倍。ASMR由1/10万上升至3/10万(EAPC=3.91),ASDR由23/10万升至74/10万(EAPC=4.11),增长趋势显著。男性在各年龄段均承受更高负担,65岁以上人群尤为突出。分解分析显示,男性负担上升更多受益于流行病学改善,女性负担则主要由人口老龄化驱动。与美国和全球趋势相比,中国高BMI相关主动脉瘤负担增长速度更快,且未来15年仍将维持高位。结论 中国高BMI相关主动脉瘤疾病负担持续攀升,呈现显著的性别与年龄差异。应加强对高危人群的体质量管理、健康干预与早期筛查,以遏制疾病持续上升趋势,优化公共卫生资源配置。

    Abstract:

    Background and Aims Aortic aneurysm, a major cardiovascular disease with high mortality and disability rates, has emerged as a critical global public health challenge. Elevated body mass index (BMI) has been confirmed as an independent risk factor for aortic aneurysm. However, the long-term trends and heterogeneity of the disease burden attributable to high BMI in China-across sex, age, and region-remain insufficiently studied. This study, based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, aimed to analyze the changes in the disease burden of high BMI-related aortic aneurysm in China from 1990 to 2021 and compare these trends with those in global and socio-demographic index (SDI)-stratified regions.Methods Data from GBD 2021 were used to extract mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) were calculated. Long-term trends were assessed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Joinpoint regression models. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to project trends from 2022 to 2036.Results During the study period, deaths and DALY from aortic aneurysms attributable to high BMI in China increased nearly sevenfold. ASMR rose from 1 to 3 per 100 000 population (EAPC=3.91), and ASDR increased from 23 to 74 per 100 000 (EAPC=4.11), both showing a marked upward trend. Males consistently bore a higher burden across all age groups, particularly among those aged ≥65 years. Decomposition analysis revealed that the increased burden in males was mainly driven by epidemiological improvements, while that in females was primarily attributable to population aging. Compared with the United States and global trends, China exhibited a faster increase in high BMI-related aortic aneurysm burden, which is projected to remain elevated over the next 15 years.Conclusion The disease burden of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI continues to rise in China, with pronounced differences across sex and age. Targeted weight management, health interventions, and early screening strategies are urgently needed for high-risk populations to curb the upward trend and optimize public health resource allocation.

    图1 高BMI所致主动脉瘤病死率与DALY趋势(1990年与2021年) A:1990年年龄别病死率;B:2021年年龄别病死率;C:1990年年龄别DALY;D:2021年年龄别DALY;E:1990年分性别死亡年龄分布;F:2021年分性别死亡年龄分布;G:1990年分性别DALY年龄分布; H:2021年分性别DALY年龄分布;I:1990—2021年高BMI所致主动脉瘤疾病负担时间趋势(死亡数及ASMR);J:1990—2021年高BMI所致主动脉瘤疾病负担时间趋势(DALY及ASDR)Fig.1 Trends in mortality rate and DALYs of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI (1990 and 2021) A: Age-specific mortality rate in 1990; B: Age-specific mortality rate in 2021; C: Age-specific DALYs in 1990; D: Age-specific DALYs in 2021; E: Age distribution of deaths by sex in 1990; F: Age distribution of deaths by sex in 2021; G: Age distribution of DALYs by sex in 1990; H: Age distribution of DALYs by sex in 2021; I: Time trends of deaths and ASMR from high BMI-related aortic aneurysm (1990-2021); J: Time trends of DALYs and ASDR from high BMI-related aortic aneurysm (1990-2021)
    图2 1990—2021年高BMI所致主动脉瘤病死率与DALY变化的归因分解分析(按性别分层;人口增长、人口老龄化及流行病学变化对疾病负担的贡献度) A:病死率变化的驱动因素分解;B:DALY变化的驱动因素分解Fig.2 Decomposition analysis of changes in mortality rate and DALYs of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI from 1990 to 2021 (stratified by sex; contributions from population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes) A: Decomposition of driving factors for changes in mortality rate; B: Decomposition of driving factors for changes in DALYs
    图3 高BMI相关主动脉瘤死亡与DALY的全球及中美年龄-性别分布对比(1990年与2021年) A:1990年全球死亡年龄-性别分布;B:2021年全球死亡年龄-性别分布;C:1990年美国死亡对应趋势;D:2021年美国死亡对应趋势;E:1990年中国死亡分布;F:2021年中国死亡分布;G:1990年全球DALY年龄-性别分布;H:2021年全球DALY年龄-性别分布;I:1990年美国DALY对应趋势;J:2021年美国DALY对应趋势;K:1990年中国DALY分布;L:2021年中国DALY分布Fig.3 Comparison of age- and sex-specific distributions of deaths and DALYs from aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI in the world, the United States, and China (1990 and 2021) A: Age- and sex-specific distribution of deaths globally in 1990; B: Age- and sex-specific distribution of deaths globally in 2021; C: Corresponding distribution of deaths in the United States in 1990; D: Corresponding distribution of deaths in the United States in 2021; E: Distribution of deaths in China in 1990; F: Distribution of deaths in China in 2021; G: Age- and sex-specific distribution of DALYs globally in 1990; H: Age- and sex-specific distribution of DALYs globally in 2021; I: Corresponding DALY distribution in the United States in 1990; J: Corresponding DALY distribution in the United States in 2021; K: DALY distribution in China in 1990; L: DALY distribution in China in 2021
    图4 高BMI所致主动脉瘤ASMR与DALY的中美全球趋势对比(1990年与2021年) A:1990年ASMR;B:2021年ASMR;C:1990年DALY;D:2021年DALYFig.4 Comparison of trends in ASMR and DALYs of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI in China, the United States, and Globally (1990 and 2021) A: ASMR in 1990; B: ASMR in 2021; C: DALYs in 1990; D: DALYs in 2021
    图5 1990—2021年高所致主动脉瘤病死率与DALY趋势的中国、全球及SDI分层对比 A:病死率趋势;B:DALY趋势Fig.5 Comparison of trends in mortality and DALYs of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI in China, Globally, and by SDI stratification from 1990 to 2021 A: Mortality trend; B: DALYs trend
    图6 中国高BMI所致主动脉瘤疾病负担实际(1990—2021年)与预测趋势(2021—2036年) A:全人群ASMR;B:男性ASMR;C:女性ASMR;D:全人群ASDR;E:男性ASDR;F:女性ASDR 红色实线为实际趋势(1990—2021年),黄色区域为预测趋势(2021—2036年,阴影表示95% UI)Fig.6 Actual (1990-2021) and predicted (2021-2036) trends of disease burden of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI in China A: ASMR in the total population; B: ASMR in males; C: ASMR in females; D: ASDR in the total population; E: ASDR in males; F: ASDR in females The red solid line represents the actual trend (1990-2021), and the yellow shaded area represents the predicted trend (2022-2036, with shading indicating the 95% UI)
    表 1 1990年与2021年中国归因于高BMI的主动脉瘤疾病负担:死亡数、DALY及其ASMR和ASDRTable 1 Burden of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI in China in 1990 and 2021: number of deaths, DALYs, ASMR, and ASDR
    表 2 1990年与2021年中国归因于高BMI的主动脉瘤疾病负担:死亡数、DALY及其ASMR和ASDR(续)Table 2 Burden of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI in China in 1990 and 2021: number of deaths, DALYs, ASMR, and ASDR (continued)
    表 3 1990—2021年高BMI所致主动脉瘤ASMR与ASDR的中美及全球变化趋势Table 3 Global trends in ASMR and ASDR of aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI in China, the United States, and worldwide from 1990 to 2021
    表 4 1990—2021年全球及不同SDI地区高BMI所致主动脉瘤年龄ASMR与ASDR趋势的Joinpoint回归分析Table 4 Joinpoint regression analysis of age-specific ASMR and ASDR trends for aortic aneurysm attributable to high BMI globally, and across different SDI regions from 1990 to 2021
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张元元,王雅文,代阳阳,杨柳.基于GBD数据的中国高体质量指数相关主动脉瘤疾病负担变化趋势分析[J].中国普通外科杂志,2025,34(6):1157-1170.
DOI:10.7659/j. issn.1005-6947.250283

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-01